Microsoft aims to boost the PC market with artificial intelligence and Windows 11, but a collateral consequence of these moves could be an early trip to the landfill for many computers.
“Windows 11 itself does not directly contribute to e-waste,” said Kieren Jessop, an analyst with global market research company Canalys. “However, due to its hardware requirements, it can indirectly increase e-waste.” He noted that a significant share of the global installed base is unable to upgrade to Windows 11 because of the TPM 2.0 chip, which enhances security.
Canalys estimates that approximately 20% of the global Windows installed base, about 200 million devices, cannot upgrade to Windows 11. Most of these devices run Windows 10, which Microsoft will stop supporting in October 2025.
“Those devices don’t become obsolete after Windows 10’s end of support,” Jessop observed. “Consumers are partially unbothered about running an obsolete Windows version. However, for businesses with older PCs, the Windows 10 end of support will drive many to purchase new devices.”
240 Million PCs Headed to the Dump
In a December report, Jessop and fellow analyst Ben Caddy estimated that about a fifth of the world’s Windows 10 devices—some 240 million PCs—will become e-waste by the time Microsoft ends support for Windows 10.
Most of these 240 million PCs, if in good condition, could at least be recycled. However, their incompatibility with the latest supported version of Windows massively reduces their value for refurbishing and reselling.
While many of these PCs will still be usable for years, the lack of free and continued security updates will deter even the most budget-conscious companies from using them. “Organizations with fleets of perfectly viable Windows 10 PCs will be driven to prematurely retire their devices once the OS vendor drops support, especially continued security updates, for their devices,” Caddy told TechNewsWorld.
Although Microsoft offers an Extended Security Updates program for three years after the Windows 10 end-of-service date, Caddy said the high price tag makes extending the life of Windows 10 PCs even less appealing. The price for the first year of updates is $61 per Windows 10 device, increasing to $122 for the second year and $244 for the third year.
Bonanza for Landfills
“Companies prefer having their devices always provided with the latest security updates and features, so even if operational, older hardware is considered obsolete,” said Jacob Kalvo, co-founder and CEO of Live Proxies, a proxy solutions provider.
Microsoft significantly increased the hardware requirements for Windows 11 over Windows 10. “That means a large number of PCs capable of running every daily application but failing on Windows 11 specifications are at risk of being dumped,” Kalvo explained.
The end of Windows 10 support will not only lead to increased e-waste but will also drive PC sales in the coming months. “A Canalys survey of channel partners found that 73% of partners expect the Windows 10 end of support to impact their customers’ refresh plans in the next 12 months,” Jessop said.
Even if Microsoft weren’t ending Windows 10 support, the rise of artificial intelligence is making Windows 10 hardware obsolete. “If AI-driven applications and features become the norm, then older PCs will not be able to run them efficiently,” Kalvo said.
Cascading PCs and Sustainability
However, Russ Ernst, CTO of Blancco Technology Group, argued that companies are trying to get more mileage out of their old hardware. “There’s a push right now in the corporate enterprise to keep machines for longer,” he told TechNewsWorld. “There’s a drive to move away from a strict three-year lifecycle and hold on to machines for four, five years, or longer. Some OEMs, like HP, are starting to think of a seven-year lifecycle.”
One way to extend the life of hardware is through “cascading,” which requires knowledge of the computing demands of the various units in a business. “I can’t cascade a machine from marketing to engineering. The system requirements are incompatible,” Ernst explained. “But I can cascade a machine from engineering to marketing.”
The scale of the e-waste produced by the end of support for Windows 10 highlights the role of device and OS vendors in maximizing products’ usable lifespans. To facilitate the circular economy, OEMs must embed durability, repairability, and recyclability into device design, and OS vendors must ensure these devices are usable and secure for as long as possible.
“While vendors have a role in reducing e-waste, the responsibility is shared among manufacturers, consumers, and policymakers,” Jessop said. “Vendors can contribute by designing products for longevity, offering repair services, and providing software updates for extended periods. However, consumers also play a crucial role in making informed purchase decisions and properly disposing of devices.”
AI PCs have prompted vendors to market both AI and the sustainability of their new hardware. “PC vendors have the responsibility of ensuring devices function effectively for as long as possible. This involves designing devices to be durable, easy to disassemble, and repair,” Caddy said.
However, the lifespan of a device is also heavily influenced by the actions of OS vendors. The end of support for an operating system can force robust, repairable, and functioning devices to be prematurely retired, often due to security concerns with using an outdated OS.
